Urban population

The urbanisation trend

Halfway through the first decade of the new millennium, around half of the world population is estimated to be living in cities, compared to only 2% around 1800. The UN estimates that this percentage will pass the 60% mark around 2030.

In reality, there are several doubts surrounding the statistics. The criteria used to define “urban” are not uniform from country to country. Additionally, the exactitude of figures reported is subject to variation, particularly in southern countries.

From continent to continent, sometimes even on the same continent, there are considerable disparities. North America, Europe, and Japan report very high urbanisation rates, from 70% to 80% of the population. On the other end of the spectrum are Africa and Asia, the so-called “developing” continents, where most countries have considerably lower urbanisation rates, generally under 50% of the population, and as low as 30% to 40% for India and China. Nevertheless, it would be a mistake to conclude that urbanisation goes hand in hand with “development”. Latin America and the Middle East boast figures similar to those of Europe dues to the development of slums and shantytowns. On the other hand, Thailand, an “emerging” country, has managed to keep three quarters of its population in rural areas.

A new phenomenon is the spread of vast megalopolises. Now numbering 24, they are to be found in both northern and southern countries. Some examples are Tokyo (population 31 million), New York (28 million), Seoul (22 million), Mexico City (21 million), and Jakarta (20 million). From an environmental standpoint, large, dense cities are not necessarily harmful. They avoid encroaching on agricultural land and limit energy needs, especially in the areas of transportation and heating. However, average-size cities of around 50,000 with adjoining agricultural land apparently offer greater sustainability, since they allow for better rural-urban cooperation.
Local situations can vary greatly. For example, in France cities of 20,000 are considered medium size, whereas in China the maximum is 200,000 for a medium size city. Green cities and slow cities are being developed as pilot projects in some areas, the emphasis here being on the environment and standard of living.